A New State of Equilibrium: Thoughts on Post-COVID Predictions
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I recently came across an article which makes 7 predictions for a post COVID world. Upon reflection, I agree with the predictions to varying degrees and decided to comment further.

First, let me share a couple of general observations. Currently, we are still in the eye of the storm. Many are unable to see any light at the end of the tunnel. There is quite a bit of negative sentiments, and some fail to see that the situation will ever improve. I am sure similar thoughts occurred during other crises: the 1918 Pandemic (Spanish Flu); the Great Depression of the 1930s; the Dot.com bust of 2001; SARS in 2003; and the Global Financial Crisis/Great US Recession of 2007. During each of these events, a sense of impending Armageddon came over much of the population. Certainly, in each instance, people did experience some personal and social permanent changes, with which they learned to adapt and cope. But, inevitably, the world did go on and Armageddon did not occur.

One of the basic truths I believe, is that humans require and crave interaction with other humans. Think about the videoconferencing applications. The use of these apps grew exponentially as the main communication channel. Instead of just audio, it was audio and video. These mediums greatly assisted society in coping and adapting. Mankind, and the Natural World, will always find a way.

Here are the predictions from the article:

  • Companies that traffic in digital services and e-commerce will make immediate and lasting gains
  • Remote work will become the default
  • Many jobs will be automated, and the rest will be made remote-capable
  • Telemedicine will become the new normal, signaling an explosion in med-tech innovation
  • The nationwide student debt crisis will finally abate as higher education begins to move online
  • Goods and people will move less often and less freely across national and regional borders
  • After an initial wave of isolationism, multilateral cooperation may flourish

I very much agree with the author’s first prediction. This one is fairly obvious, as it has proven true throughout the crisis with providers such as Amazon, Zoom and others. It is expected to continue into the post COVID world. This is also evident from the findings of the Ecosystm research on the impacts of COVID-19. Organisations intend to continue to use digital technologies, even after the immediate crisis is over (Figure 1).

Top Measures to be retained by organisations Post COVID-19

A Natural State of Equilibrium will Emerge

I believe for each of the areas described in the predictions, there will be various levels of long-term modification. None of them will return to their pre COVID-19 state, as we have all experienced going down the rabbit hole. During the pandemic, due largely to the lockdowns, the pendulum swung significantly towards one side. Many times, when people predict a new view, the current state is considered the New Normal. For me, the relevant question is: Will things stay as they are now, or will there be a new natural state of equilibrium? If so, what will it look like, in each of these areas? I don’t believe there is one answer, or one New Normal for all the dimensions being discussed. I believe a new normal state will potentially be different for each individual, each company/entity and each condition. In a post COVID-19 world there could be 50 shades of grey in each of these areas. 

One of the predictions states that remote work will become the default. It must be remembered that part of work is a collaborative effort. While video conferencing has enabled collaborative efforts, the importance of the accidental interaction at the break room, printer, etc. can’t be under-estimated. It is these unscheduled interactions that enable accidental collaboration which can lead to great solutions. Thus, there will be many shades to the Future of Work – there will not be one absolute. 

A similar example is a prediction for higher education. Part of the learning process a university offers is interacting with people who are not similar to your background or beliefs. That is one of the benefits of a diverse university. Similar to the corporate environment, many different types of learning environments will enable a person to gain great experiences from the time at university.

The advantage of all these alternatives will be the additional options and benefits to people post COVID compared to the pre COVID-19 world. It will present many great opportunities for entrepreneurs and innovators, as well as end-users and consumers. It will create new and iterative ‘middle spaces’. It will be possible for a David to emerge and challenge a Goliath(s).

The two Chinese characters for the word ‘crisis’ are “danger” and “opportunity”. Just as we are in a dangerous time now, it has also presented new and different opportunities. Those opportunities will continue to exist even when the danger has passed. I am also reminded of the old expression “May you live in interesting times”. It very much applies to all of us now and in the future. I wish the same for all of you.

Stay Safe. Stay Healthy. Stay Mentally Positive.


More insights on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and technology areas that will see transformation post COVID, as organisations get into the recovery phase, can be found in the Ecosystm Digital Priorities in the New Normal Study
Ecosystm COVID-19 Research Data

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Throughout his career, Mike has been involved in the commercial and corporate real estate business across Asia, Europe and the US. His passion for technology, extensive knowledge of real estate, and ability to connect the dots, enables him to provide multinational clients with forward-looking solutions for real estate assets. During a thirteen-year tenure at Cisco, he worked on real estate projects including a 15,000 person / 3 million sf campus in India, and 1000+ person complexes in Sydney, Singapore and Shanghai. His role also included the Portfolio Management Strategy for over 70 locations in 13 countries throughout Asia Pacific. Outside of Cisco, Mike has overseen projects such as the pre-development of a 300-room hotel project in China, a 1,200 acre new town development in Thailand. He also asset managed a 1.5 million sf mixed use project in the US. For the past ten years, he has taught multiple real estate courses throughout Asia, Europe and the US for real estate professionals. His articles on Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, Real Estate Investment, Corporate Real Estate, and Career Guidance have been published in various sources. He has spoken at many conferences regarding Corporate & Commercial Real Estate, Sustainable & Smart Cites, and PropTech. Mike started his career in the US, working in the fields of Architecture, Development and Real Estate Finance; he is still a registered Architect in the US. He graduated from Harvard Business School with a Master of Business Administration and attained his Bachelor of Architecture degree from Arizona State University. He has been happily married for 30 years and is hoping for at least another 20 years. He and his family have spent over 20 years living in Asia. His children truly are Global Citizens. He enjoys all outdoor activities, including cycling, hiking and camping. His passions include talking with people and solving creative and complicated problems.


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